Thursday, November 08, 2007

Don't need a weatherman...

Leave it to the NDP to develop a keen sense of economic timing. On the same day it was announced that the first houses in Waverly West will begin early next year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 360 points amid growing uncertainty. Today, the New York Times reports that crude oil prices have risen 42% since August of this year, presently trading at around $95 a barrel.

Like sartorial trends, it takes a while for the economic trends of the North American to reach Winnipeg, but they do come eventually. By the time Ladco builders starts gluing the particle boards together on Waverly, oil companies will have long given up on trying to absorb the rising crude prices rather than pass the cost on to consumers. Banks won't be able to hold interest rates at their current low levels, and the Pent Up Demand For New Homes Particularly in the City's Southwest Quadrant® will have vaporized significantly.

Even with the current levels of sprawl going on within the City and in the capital region, the real estate slowdown could be ridden out fairly smoothly. With Waverly West, a massive glut in the supply of suburban housing will be added, bringing down the value of real estate further still.

Right now, there are young families who live in places like West and East St. Paul, who go without the luxury of furniture because so much of their income goes towards mortgage payments. For them, rising engery prices and interest rates could this into an especially long, cold, and hard winter.


I guess all that work Winnipeg Transit has recently put in to removing heaters, benches and walls from busy downtown bus shacks doesn't pay for itself...


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